Predictions on the state of the sexual marketplace.

So Redquest wrote an excellent piece last week that got me thinking about some meta stuff regarding game, sexual dynamics, the sexual marketplace, and where things are headed in the future.

Redcoco has a well-written, detailed blog on the current sexual market structure, which he accurately notes is in a state of deregulation. READ THE BLOG, but the TL;DR is that female hypergamy has been accelerated by technology (swipe dating) and enabled by economic factors (“I don’t need no manz, I can pay m’own bills!”).

Basically, the 80/20 rule–or Pareto’s Law–is coming into effect. 20% of dudes are fucking 80% of women, and top guys (best 1-2% of game plus status plus SMV) are fucking 80% of the hot women.

What Coco concludes is that while this is a bad time to be a normal dude–especially a Billy Beta–it’s a pretty great time to be a player. I agree with this 100% and I’ve heard RedQuest and others say the same thing: there has never been a better time to be a player and fuck a lot of chicks.

However, turns out these circumstances leave a lot of people unhappy, with less sex happening for most, fewer marriages, and a divorce rate that’s still around 40-50% (it’s come down a bit recently, but that’s only because fewer people are getting married in the first place and millennials who get married are basically forced to stay together to survive economically).

For women, the problem is that while they can generally match with and fuck guys 10-20% above their SMV using swipe dating, none of these guys subsequently want to stick around, because if you’re a male 8 it’s a long drop to be dating a 6 and you know it–especially given the difference between how men and women age (I love Torero’s line on that: “when men age they look like Sean Connery; when women age they look like… Sean Connery”).

For men it’s the simple fact that unless you have game–and most guys have no fucking clue what that even means–you have to be VERY, VERY good looking to get laid regularly. Indeed, that’s the number one reason why Millennials are having less sex: because with online dating, looks are pretty much all that matters and only the very best looking men (top 5-10% if we’re generous) and women (top 20-30%–big advantage) match with people they’re attracted to. Again, women have the advantage because men are much thirstier than they are (guys swipe right about 50% of the time, women swipe right about 15% of the time). TBH, even with game, SMV is more important than a lot of guys let on; in fact I’d argue that male SMV in terms of pure looks probably matters more now than it ever has.

Consequences:

A) Many women in this generation are going to end up single after passing the wall, simply for the fact that they prioritized their careers and/or were too picky to find a man who would marry them.

and

B) Men are starting to figure out that getting married is a horrible deal, along with one of two possible reactions: A) become a player/red pill guy (most don’t choose this path, because it’s too hard/they’re blue pill/it’s scary to do cold approach), or B) go MGTOW/Incel–not necessarily a guy who posts about it constantly and hates women, or even identifies as such, but a dude who basically just kinda drifts out of the sexual market, obsesses about sports, fishing, hunting, work, or something of the like to the point where they basically get zero pussy on the regular. You and I both know at least a few guys like that, if not a lot.

I want to say this: I have sympathy for guys who can’t get laid. I don’t condone the violence or ridiculous misogyny it prompts in the Incels and even some red pill guys, but to not be able to express one’s sexuality for years and years? It’s inhumane. And part of that is on the dude for not lifting, being successful, all the other red pill things, etc.–but a lot of guys don’t know about that stuff. All they know is the blue pill version of the world they’ve been fed by society. Anyway, you obviously you can’t force people to have sex with each other, but the fact we’ve set up a society where huge numbers of men (and many women) lead purposeless, sexless, loveless lives? That’s sad.

Anyway, ultimately most women want to get married (many don’t know this or do and refuse to acknowledge it, but it’s still true). And have kids. They just do. It’s way better for them than the alternative–especially when they get older. No one cares about an older woman who’s rich and powerful, unmarried and childless.

I’ll repeat that: no one. Not even other women.

So the fact so many women between the ages of say 25-40 today will NOT get married, NOT have kids, and be lonely and bitter in old age is at some point going to creep into the ether of the sexual marketplace.

It’s the natural result of social programming. Modern society has made women more capricious, picky, flaky, flighty, and at the same time, masculine, and there are consequences for when you basically have no real weight as a real human being. Like, I’m not sure if women understand this–in fact, I’m sure they don’t–but the fact they are so collectively flaky and picky is basically putting the nails in the coffin for whatever chance monogamy had left.

Because if I’m a guy–especially a top guy–the fact women are so flaky, non-committal, and passive essentially forces me to become a player at any point I become single. Because any of the girls I’m dating might flake out or fucking ghost my ass out of the blue–in fact, this is a certainty, even if I’m real good looking and my game is tight. So I have to have multiple leads and be working new leads all the time if I want to have women in my life consistently. But then once you learn how easy and satisfying that is–especially if you have some success, as many of us have–like, why the fuck would you get into an LTR, or worse, married?

A: you wouldn’t.

Compounding this, because swipe dating has created a situation where women can match with men of way higher SMV than what they’re bringing to the table, many women are becoming alpha widows and/or picky beyond reason: she’s matched/had sex with someone beyond her reach, which carries negative downfield effects for both her and the beta she might eventually marry, cause he’ll never give her the feelz like she’s had for some Tinder fuckboi she went on one date and drunkenly fucked, before being ghosted because she was 2 points below his SMV.

Shifts going forward and the bubble in female SMV.

My guess is that this dynamic starts to weigh more heavily on the collective conscience of women as things go forward. Mind you, this won’t be acknowledged or stated explicitly, but there will be a tacit/implicit sort of group think that infiltrates the female hive mind–basically that they’ll start to realize:

A) not all male attention is equal and HQ guys are exceedingly rare–this is why so many girls we game come back after the initial relationship breaks down,

B) male looks matter less than his game–a point that’s been lost in the days of swiping–and,

C) beauty has a shelf life. A short one for most women.

Again, this won’t be happen right away or be called out explicitly, but I don’t think women have yet realized how few truly HQ guys there are, and because they can perceivably match with a top guy on swipe dating any day, they take male attention for granted. Like, how many female dating profiles say “6′ and over” not realizing that such a demand eliminates 80% or more of the male population? When you factor in that at least half the guys over 6′ are ugly, goons, socially inept, etc., they’re now working with less than 10% of the population, and probably another 75% of that isn’t swipe dating, or is in a relationship. These girls–with just one demand–have whittled the market down to 2.5% of all dudes. Another way to think about it is that HQ male attention is under performing the market, because dick and male attention in general has become so cheap.

What happens during these conditions is described in a paper called the market for lemons, in which the authors show that when a market (Tinder/swipe dating) is flooded with bad product, it’s difficult for consumers (women) to decipher the good from the bad, and as a consequence, the good producers/sellers (HQ guys) pull out of the market, and eventually, so do many of the consumers.

This is already happening to some degree with swipe dating. It’s so bad for most guys that at some point many will give up. This is why you see so many guys learning day game and becoming non-monogamous. Marriage is fucked, so we can’t invest in that; swipe dating is unreliable at best and a bad product for most; and women are super flaky, which means that we have to game multiple girls at the same time to have an active sex life.

So, as scarce as high value male attention is now, it’s only going to become more scarce. Growing income and wealth inequality, plus video games, pornography, and fast food, only exacerbates this trend on the male end of things.

On the flip side, female beauty has become overvalued relative to HQ male attention. What this means is that increasingly, there are more hot chicks out there than guys who can properly game them (keep in mind, I’m not saying they’re single–many will shack up with a beta soy boys because girls are supposed to have boyfriends), and the guys gaming them generally have options, which means their attention is even more scarce.

In essence, what we’ll see is that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, but in relative terms we’ll see the collective female SMV fade while HQ male SMV increases.

Basically, I’d argue there’s a bubble in female SMV. Female beauty is perceived as being more valuable and scarce than what it is–not unlike what happened with the Great Recession which was caused, mostly, by the housing bubble. Flashback: houses were massively overvalued and there were a number of factors that led to many of the people who owned them to be over-leveraged aka not able to really afford their mortgage. When people realized this, and then realized that the mortgage investments they’d made were basically worthless, the market crashed.

The same thing has and is continuing to happen to some degree with female SMV. Women, in general, believe their value to be higher than what the market can bear because of the dynamics of swipe dating and the false validation that comes from social media–especially Instagram. On the flip side, men believe there are fewer attractive women than there are, or that attractive women aren’t sexually available, which we all know isn’t true.

My guess is that with both marriage and swipe dating in general being a bad deal for guys, the bubble bursts at some point and the dating market resets itself to some degree.

I should state here that I’m neither stupid, nor naive: there are zero immediate consequences for super hot chicks having wrong beliefs or behaving badly–they can basically do whatever the hell they want and get away with it. Where there are consequences, however, are on the margins, specific to three groups of women:

  1. Older women who are approaching/passing the wall.
  2. More masculine/feminist.
  3. 6’s and 7’s.

Currently, all three have vastly overinflated perceptions of their SMV, but I’d argue that in the next 5 years or so, women in these groups are going to start realizing they’re wrong.

Will they admit this? No, because women generally don’t take responsibility for anything, and you can understand why, when an honest admission from the writer on sex and the city is socially shamed by other women for stating the truth, which is that she wishes she would have gotten married and had kids.

But that’s the reality, and even if women can’t admit that out loud, they know it’s true deep down. And when women on the margins start reacting to that reality, it’s going to have implications and effects on the sexual marketplace in general.

TL;DR–female SMV is overvalued (less scarce than what we perceive), while HQ male SMV is undervalued (more scarce than what we perceive–and increasingly so going forward), and the the market is at some point going to correct itself.

4 thoughts

  1. It would be great to do a qualitative analysis of all the dating data and see which was it is directing us. We already have glimpses through general surveys however Game, Red Pill and pickup provide a prism within which we can see real drivers and motivators of female behaviour (however politically incorrect).

    I sense that there are attempts to re-regulate the market, for example, algorithmic changes to Tinder to reduce the amount of “Tinder alphas” receiving swipes from women. This clearly benefits men who are not as attractive physically. It is a classic case of intrasexual competition (ie. between men).

    We are seeing the same with women regarding the Likes changes to Instagram. Anecdotal evidence suggests older women like the change, younger women don’t. Why? Intrasexual dynamics in my opinion as older women start to feel they cannot compete with older women.

    This lurching process forwards and backwards is what we are likely to see – the Winners vs the Losers in the sexual marketplace.

    Like

  2. A free market works good if everyone has good information. A lot of people have dating expectations, based on tradition, blue pill conditioning, pop culture, and feminism, of how dating and attraction *should* work, versus how it actually works.

    At some point, as more an more women get disillusioned with dating, they will have their own version of a red-pill cultural shift that men have had, and a market correction will take place.

    “I want to say this: I have sympathy for guys who can’t get laid.”

    I don’t. In this age of fucking google, youtube infields, forums, blogs, podcasts, thousands of PUA books, coaches/mentors, and scientific studies, there is no good reason that men can’t put in the work to become attractive and get laid (barring unfortunate genetic defects, disease, freak accidents, or really old age).

    Sure, I empathize with guys who somehow haven’t come across this stuff, but it’s hard to believe there’s a sexual man who’s never googled “how to get laid”.

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